Key Levels Timeline

Path: /key-levels
Access: Registered Users (Pro tier)

Overview

The Key Levels Timeline page provides a forward-looking view of critical price levels derived from options data across multiple expirations. Instead of looking at a single expiration, this page aggregates max pain, gamma walls, IV expected move, and sigma bands across your selected time horizon (2 weeks to 3 months) to identify persistent structural levels and confluence zones.

Page Layout

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ Days Forward Selector (2W, 1M, 2M, 3M)      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Metric Cards (4 across)                     │
│ - Current Price                             │
│ - Weekly Std Dev                            │
│ - Nearest Max Pain                          │
│ - Top Confluence                            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Level Toggle Controls                       │
│ (Show/Hide layers on chart)                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Key Levels Timeline Chart                   │
│ (X = Expiration Date, Y = Price)            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Key Levels by Expiration Table              │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Confluence Zones                            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Strike Recommendations                      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ AI Analysis                                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Educational Section                         │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Metrics

Current Price

The live reference price for the selected symbol. All percentage distances and calculations are based on this value.

Weekly Standard Deviation

Historical volatility measure based on 52-week price data. This shows the typical weekly percentage fluctuation. The 1σ range represents where ~68% of weekly moves have historically landed.

Nearest Max Pain

The max pain strike for the closest expiration. Shows the price level where option sellers experience the least loss. The delta percentage indicates how far current price is from this magnet.

Top Confluence

The strongest confluence zone—a price level where multiple key levels (max pain, gamma walls, IV bounds) from different expirations align. Higher confluence count = stronger support/resistance.

Timeline Chart

The main visualization displays key levels over time:

• X-axis: Expiration dates (chronological)
• Y-axis: Price levels
• Current Price Line: Horizontal reference (blue)

Chart Layers (Toggle On/Off)

How to Read

1. Look for convergence: When multiple colored lines cluster at a price level across expiration dates, that's a strong structural level
2. Track trends: If max pain drifts higher across expirations, institutional positioning may be bullish
3. Identify ranges: The IV move and sigma bands define expected trading ranges for each expiration
4. Spot gamma walls: Call/Put GEX walls often act as acceleration points if breached

Key Levels by Expiration Table

A detailed breakdown for each expiration date:

Reading Example

Expiration: Jan 17
Max Pain: $450 (+2.3%)     ← Price likely gravitates here by expiration
IV Range: $435 - $465       ← Market expects price to stay within this range
1σ Range: $438 - $462       ← Statistical 68% probability range
Call GEX: $460              ← Resistance; breakout accelerates above
Put GEX: $445               ← Support; breakdown accelerates below

Confluence Zones

Strikes where multiple key levels align across different expirations. These are the most significant support/resistance levels.

What Creates Confluence:

• Max Pain from multiple expirations hitting the same strike
• Gamma walls clustering at a price
• IV expected move bounds overlapping
• Sigma bands converging

Reading the Cards:

• Price: The confluence strike
• Percentage: Distance from current price
• Count: Number of different level types converging
• Types: Which levels align (Max Pain, Call GEX, Put GEX, IV Upper/Lower, etc.)

Example:

$450 (+2.3%)
4 types converge
Max Pain, Call GEX, IV Upper, +1σ

Interpretation: Very strong resistance at $450
- Multiple expirations pin here
- Call gamma wall adds momentum barrier
- Price breaching $450 likely triggers acceleration

Strike Recommendations

Suggested strikes for selling options that are likely to expire worthless, positioned beyond all key support/resistance levels.

Safety Score Explained

• ★★★★★ (5): Extreme safety—multiple key levels as buffers
• ★★★★☆ (4): High safety—solid buffer with margin
• ★★★☆☆ (3): Moderate safety—reasonable distance, some protection
• ★★☆☆☆ (2): Low safety—minimal buffer
• ★☆☆☆☆ (1): Risky—very close to key levels

Strategy Rationale

Strikes are selected to be beyond all calculated support/resistance:

• Outside max pain
• Beyond IV expected move range
• Past gamma walls
• Beyond 1σ statistical range

This "expire worthless" approach maximizes probability of keeping collected premium.

Trading Applications

1. Identify Persistent Support/Resistance

Use confluence zones to find strikes that matter across multiple expirations. These levels are more significant than single-expiration analysis.

2. Plan Credit Spreads

Use strike recommendations to position short strikes beyond key levels:

• Sell puts below all put walls, max pain, and IV lower bounds
• Sell calls above all call walls, max pain, and IV upper bounds

3. Set Profit Targets

Look for clustered resistance/support levels as natural exit points for directional trades.

4. Gauge Directional Bias

• If max pain trends higher across expirations → bullish dealer positioning
• If max pain trends lower → bearish positioning
• If confluence zones cluster above current price → overhead resistance
• If confluence zones cluster below → strong support base

5. Time-Based Analysis

Use the Days Forward selector to see:

• 2W: Near-term catalyst levels
• 1M: Monthly option cycle positioning
• 2-3M: Structural levels that persist across multiple cycles

Use Case Examples

Iron Condor Setup

Goal: Sell premium outside expected range

1. Select 1M (30 days) forward window
2. Note top confluence zones (these are boundaries to avoid)
3. Use Strike Recommendations table for suggested short strikes
4. Select strikes with 4+ safety stars
5. Construct iron condor with short strikes at recommended levels

Directional Breakout Trade

Goal: Position for move through key levels

1. Identify confluence zone clusters
2. Look for zones where price is consolidating just below/above
3. Enter calls if approaching call wall from below (breakout thesis)
4. Enter puts if approaching put wall from above (breakdown thesis)
5. Set targets at next confluence zone

Covered Call Optimization

Goal: Sell calls unlikely to be called away

1. Review Call GEX columns for resistance levels
2. Check strike recommendations for suggested call strikes
3. Sell covered calls at or above the strongest call wall
4. Use safety rating to balance premium vs assignment risk

Key Level Definitions

Tips for Best Results

1. Start with 1M view: This captures the most common monthly options cycle
2. Toggle layers for clarity: Turn off less relevant layers to focus on what matters
3. Watch confluence count: 3+ converging types = strong level
4. Compare IV vs σ bands: If IV range is wider than σ range, market expects elevated volatility
5. Use safety scores: For credit strategies, prefer 4+ star recommendations
6. Check before big moves: Reviewing levels before earnings or events helps set expectations